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Forecasting:
Two forecasts side by side: what the numbers say and what the reps say. Learn which to trust.
The forecast from the numbers is automatic and assumes every deal at a stage behaves like the average deal. The forecast from the rep has the rep's judgment in it and the rep's bias. Neither is worth much alone. Saved every night and compared with what really closed, together they show you the truth.
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Reps commit 18% more than the stages support. The gap has held for six weeks.
Both numbers are kept every week, so the gap is a record, not an opinion. Illustrative pipeline.
How it works:
From the numbers
Each open deal's value times its chance of closing in the period. The chance comes from the stage. A rep can change it on a single deal, and the change is logged with the old value.
From the rep
Every deal gets one of four labels: commit (the rep stands behind it), best case (real, not certain), pipeline (live, but not this period), omitted. When a rep moves a deal from commit to pipeline late in the period, a manager needs to see it, and the log makes sure they do.
Saved every night
Both numbers are saved every night, by rep, by line of business and by period. That history is what makes accuracy measurable.
Which one was right
The rep's forecast against what closed, the numbers' forecast against what closed, by rep and by period. Who plays it safe, who is optimistic, and whether the chances set on each stage are anywhere near reality.
One rep, one quarter:
| Period | From the numbers | From the rep | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| July | $184,000 | $210,000 | $171,500 |
| August | $196,000 | $225,000 | $168,200 |
| September | $202,000 | $240,000 | $179,900 |
| Read | Too high by 9 to 14%: the chance of closing at “proposal sent” is set too high | Too high by 23 to 33%: this rep is always optimistic |
Example pipeline, one rep, one quarter. Figures invented to show the format.
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